“How Long Can the Economy and Politics Continue to Diverge?”

Mark DeCambre in Market Watch compared U.S. presidents’ first 100 days performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The first 100 days since the Trump election in November, the Dow increased by 14.22 percent. A pretty strong rally by all measures. However, Mr. Decambre points out that first 100 days after Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996, the Dow increased by 14.48 percent, and the largest gain was experienced by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 when the Dow increased a whopping 46.2 percent.

Furthermore, having a great Dow performance in the first 100 days after an election appears not to be a good predictor of economic performance over the course of an administration. Herbert Hoover, who presided at the time of the 1929 stock market crash had a great first 100 days. Hoover’s first 100 days witnessed the Dow increase by 19.05 percent. This is in contrast to Ronald Reagan's first 100 days when the Dow increased by only 7.16 percent and Lyndon Johnson’s 4.93 percen...

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